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Mobility & Future Aviation

Rewiring the Kerb: Autonomous Ride-Hailing and the Future of Airport Revenue Models

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Airport Intelligence Series Rewiring the Kerb: Autonomous Ride-Hailing and the Future of Airport Revenue Models April 2026 7 min read The Phoenix Precedent When Phoenix Sky Harbor opened its kerb to Waymo’s fully driverless Jaguar I-PACEs in December 2023, the city made a pragmatic choice: treat autonomous vehicles (AV) exactly like every other Transportation Network Company. The existing TNC permit framework—annual vehicle permits, geofence-triggered trip logging, and a flat per-trip fee for every pick-up and drop-off—was extended to Waymo without a bespoke regulatory carve-out. That decision has proven consequential. Waymo surpassed 100,000 airport trips cumulatively by mid-2025 and now accounts for a meaningful share of Sky Harbor’s weekly TNC movements, operating 24/7 across Terminals 3 and 4. The fee itself has followed a pre-set escalation path. Starting at $2.66 per curbside pick-up, it rose through annual increments to $5.00 in 2024. Beginning January 2025, Phoenix City Code 4-78 indexes the rate to the greater of 3% or the annual CPI-U change—placing the current effective rate at approximately $5.15 per trip. Critically, both pick-ups and drop-offs are charged, meaning a single round-trip Waymo ride to Sky Harbor generates north of $10 in airport ground-transportation revenue. With Waymo’s fleet set to roughly double once the new Magna-partnered Mesa assembly plant reaches full output—targeting an additional 2,000 Jaguar I-PACEs by end of 2026—trip volumes could grow sharply, and with them the revenue line. Concept of Operations: How It Actually Works The concept of operations (ConOps) for autonomous TNC service at an airport differs from human-driven ride-hail in ways that are subtle but operationally significant. In the conventional model, a TNC driver receives a ride request, enters the airport geofence, navigates to the designated pick-up zone (typically Level 1 of each terminal at Sky Harbor), waits for the passenger, and departs. Between trips, drivers stage in a surface-lot holding area—a TNC staging lot located outside the immediate terminal footprint—where they wait, engine idling, for the next dispatch. Waymo’s ConOps eliminates the driver but introduces a different operational cadence. Vehicles are dispatched from a centralised depot—in Phoenix, the 70,000+ sq ft Chandler facility that houses fleet maintenance, cleaning, and DC fast-charging—rather than from a nearby staging lot. When a ride request is matched, the vehicle drives itself to the terminal kerb, collects the passenger, and proceeds to the destination. On a drop-off, the vehicle enters the airport, delivers the passenger curbside, and either accepts a queued return trip or repositions back toward the depot or a high-demand zone in the metro area. This depot-centric model has three implications for airports. First, it reduces demand for on-airport TNC staging lots because vehicles are not loitering on-site between trips; they reposition algorithmically. Second, it increases the predictability of kerb dwell times—Waymo’s vehicles pull into a precise GPS-designated spot and depart once the passenger is aboard, with no circling or double-parking. Third, it shifts the compliance mechanism from driver behaviour enforcement to API-level data exchange: airports can monitor fleet movements, geofence crossings, and trip counts through a direct integration with the Waymo platform rather than relying on TNC driver app pings. The Fee Architecture: Curbside, Staging, and Beyond Airport ground-transportation revenue from TNCs rests on a layered fee architecture that most airports are still adapting for autonomous fleets. Curbside trip fees. The per-pick-up and per-drop-off charge—$5+ at Phoenix, roughly $6 at SFO—is the primary revenue instrument. SFO’s programme alone generated over $60 million from more than 10 million Uber and Lyft transactions in 2025. When Waymo launched SFO service in January 2026 (operating from the Rental Car Center Level 1 curbside via AirTrain), it was folded into the same fee schedule. The principle is straightforward: if you touch the kerb, you pay. Staging-area access. Airports such as Sky Harbor designate TNC staging lots with 30-minute occupancy limits, enforced by geofence. Human-driven TNCs pay implicitly through the trip fee (staging is bundled), but an autonomous operator with a large captive fleet could, in theory, negotiate a standing holding-area lease—a monthly or annual rental for reserved staging capacity near the terminal. No US airport has publicly disclosed such an arrangement with Waymo to date, but the concept needs to be explored. Washington Dulles’s third kerb—a dedicated 500-linear-foot TNC pick-up lane with steel canopy—illustrates how airports are already carving out premium real estate for ride-hail, and a similar premium-access model could apply to AV staging. Electric-vehicle charging fees. This is the frontier. Waymo’s fleet is fully electric (Jaguar I-PACE, transitioning to the Geely Zeekr), and every vehicle that serves the airport must charge somewhere. Today, Waymo charges at its own off-airport depot in Chandler, drawing power through utility partnerships with Salt River Project (SRP) and Arizona Public Service (APS). The airport collects nothing from this energy transaction. But if an airport were to install DC fast-charging infrastructure on or adjacent to the terminal—say, integrated into a redesigned TNC staging lot—it could levy a per-kWh or per-session charging fee on top of the trip fee. Can Waymo Go Solar and Sidestep Charging Fees? The question is commercially relevant. Waymo already procures 100% renewable energy for its fleet—purchasing over 6,200 MWh of solar and wind energy in 2022 through partnerships with NextEra Energy Resources, SRP, and Google’s clean-energy portfolio. In Arizona, the economics of behind-the-meter solar are compelling: utility-scale solar PPAs in the state run below $0.03/kWh, and commercial rooftop installations can achieve levelised costs under $0.05/kWh. Could Waymo install its own solar canopy at a leased airport staging area and effectively zero out its charging cost? Technically, yes. A 1 MW solar carport covering a 50-vehicle staging lot in Phoenix could generate roughly 2,000 MWh per year—enough to supply approximately 150 to 200 fast charges per day at the lot. But airports control the real estate. Any on-airport solar installation would require a ground lease, utility interconnection approval, and adherence to FAA glare and obstruction standards. The airport could structure the lease so that it captures a share of the energy savings—for example, charging a per-kWh facility fee on any electricity

Environment and Sustainability

Biophilic Design in Airport Terminals: The Operational Case

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Airport Intelligence Series Biophilic Design in Airport Terminals: The Operational Case April 2026 5 min read Airports are, by design, among the most stressful environments humans regularly move through. They are large, loud, and structurally engineered for throughput rather than comfort. The clock is always running. Which is precisely why biophilic design has found such fertile ground here. Studies across neuroscience and environmental psychology consistently show that exposure to natural elements lowers heart rates, reduces blood pressure, improves cognitive function, and shortens perceived recovery time from stress. The business case is direct. Calmer passengers dwell longer, spend more at retail and food and beverage, and form more positive associations with the airport brand. There is also a wayfinding dimension. Large terminals are inherently disorienting. Distinctive natural installations can function as memorable landmarks in a way that signage alone cannot. Passengers anchor their spatial memory to the garden, not the gate number. But it is not without challenges. The hostile indoor environment is the starting point. Terminals are usually deep-plan buildings where natural light does not reach everywhere. They run under continuous mechanical ventilation Airside zones near boarding gates open repeatedly onto the tarmac, creating thermal stress on living plants and posing MEP challenges for consistent growing conditions. The birds is another challenge, which is more serious in airport context. Bird strikes cost the aviation industry over $1.2 billion annually in repairs and downtime. The cruel irony: naturalistic internal planting is highly attractive to the birds that airport operators are simultaneously mandated to exclude from aircraft. Inside the terminal, bird droppings can enter ventilation systems and nesting material can damage HVAC infrastructure. Living plant installations require dedicated horticultural staff and irrigation systems maintained around 18-to-24-hour operational schedules, and plant replacement cycles managed without disrupting passenger flow or generating risks. THE CHANGI LESSON: WHAT SUSTAINED EXCELLENCE LOOKS LIKE If there is one airport in the world that has consistently excelled in this department, it is Singapore Changi. Not because of Jewel, but because of what sits behind it: a maintenance infrastructure that most airports don’t have and haven’t thought to build. Changi has more than 500,000 plants across its four main terminals, covering some 250 species. It produces approximately 3,000 plants a month in its own nursery. To tend to all of this, the airport employs a dedicated team of horticulturalists. LESSON 1 Build the Supply Chain Before You Need It   Most airports treat plant maintenance as a procurement function: when something fails, a contractor is called. Changi treats it as a production function. The CAG Plant Nursery — a three-hectare facility nurturing 50 species. It is responsible for the propagation, cultivation, and distribution of display plants, including unique cultivars named after the airport itself: the Bougainvillea ‘Changi Airport’ and the Dendrobium ‘Singapore Changi Airport.’ The nursery also functions as a controlled acclimatization environment where plants spend time growing under conditions that approximate what they will face inside the terminal. Without this, every replacement is a procurement event: slow, expensive, and often resulting in plants that fail again within months. LESSON 2  Treat Species Selection as an Engineering Decision When Changi was populating Jewel, the procurement process alone took nearly three years. Sourcing more than 2,000 trees and palms and over 100,000 shrubs across 120 species from around the world required nine months of procurement and a further two years of local nursery conditioning. Many trees had to be pruned to fit shipping containers before being nursed back to health on arrival. The key criterion throughout was not aesthetic preference. Each species was evaluated against its ability to thrive within the complex, given its specific light levels, temperature, and humidity conditions. Horticulture expertise at the design stage is what makes this possible. LESSON 3  Close the Waste Loop The CAG horticulture team actively diverts waste from its nursery and gardens to be used as compost. The programme is expanding to include horticultural waste from the gardens and from trees along Airport Boulevard. This matters on two levels. Practically, it reduces the operational cost of waste disposal for a high-volume plant programme. Strategically, it closes the loop — the landscape produces its own inputs. For airports pursuing LEED this is a measurable circular economy outcome. LESSON 4  Curate Continuously Biophilic design in a terminal is not a one-time capital decision. It is a continuously curated programme — and data is what makes curation disciplined rather than intuitive. The horticulture team uses data analytics to understand what visitors are responding to, using that information to guide the design of seasonal displays. THE COMMITMENT BEHIND THE CANOPY The Changi model is always not directly replicable. Especially because of its scale, its government backing, and Singapore’s national identity as a City in a Garden create conditions that are difficult to transplant. But its underlying logic is entirely transferable, and it comes down to institutional decisions rather than financial ones. Building a sustainable supply chain, treating species selection as an engineering specification and designing for the waste loop from day one. Are all good implementable lessons from Changi. Nature in the terminal is worth pursuing. The evidence on the benefits is strong. But the forest doesn’t maintain itself. And in an airport, nothing is low-maintenance, unless one plans for it from the beginning.  Share Share Share

Airport Planning & Infrastructure

Building Smart: The Case for Low-Cost Terminals

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Airport Intelligence Series Building Smart: The Case for Low-Cost Terminals April 2026 4 min read India’s aviation story is not just about metro hubs and large, glass‑and‑steel terminals. The growth is actually in the smaller places: the tier‑2 and tier‑3 cities providing regional connectivity beyond the metros. As the Centre pushes ahead with a modified UDAN scheme and a pipeline of roughly 100 new and revived airports, one question will determine whether this expansion is sustainable: can we build and run truly low‑cost terminals that are lean and efficient? For too long, “low‑cost airport” has been heard as cheap and low quality terminal. In reality, a low‑cost terminal is best understood along three dimensions. Lower CapEx Lower OpEx Higher Efficiency By no means – lower level of service. The starting point, therefore, is not a drawing but a strategic business model. Any tier‑2 or tier‑3 terminal must first answer three basic questions. What is its positioning? What are its constraints? What level of service is it promising? Once the economic logic is clear, sizing and phasing become the crucial design decisions. Many of the new airports risk repeating a familiar mistake: building for a 15‑year horizon based on the opportunistic forecasts. A low‑cost approach does the opposite. It uses realistic, conservative traffic projections to size processing areas and takes seriously the idea of modularity: building an initial 0.5–1 million passengers per annum (MPPA) module that can be replicated or extended as demand grows, instead of a single oversized structure that stands half‑empty for years. Site planning is done with future phases in mind, ensuring that additional halls or fingers can be added without tearing up aprons or access roads. In physical terms, this often leads to a simple linear terminal, especially for the 0.5–5 MPPA band where most Indian regional airports will sit for some time. A single‑storey, linear hall with aircraft parked parallel on the airside allows short walking distances, intuitive flows, and easy incremental expansion. We have examples of such flexible modular design terminals in India. Terminal 1 of Kempegowda International Airport initially designed for 11 MPPA, incrementally expanded and optimized for 30 MPPA. It is a single level linear terminal built on the concept of modularity and functionality, whose capacity could be easily augmented basis the demand growth. More complex typologies—fingers, satellites, hybrids—only make sense when aircraft stands or land are genuinely constrained. For most tier‑2 and tier‑3 locations, they are unnecessary complications that add cost without benefit. With the typology in place, the design philosophy should be to strip down to essentials, then add selectively where the business case is strong. Essentials are non‑negotiable: level of service, safety and regulatory requirements, accessibility and passenger flows are a must. Efficiency enablers come next: consolidated processing zones rather than scattered islands, minimal level changes, and clear wayfinding can shrink the footprint and staffing levels while actually improving the passenger journey.Good-to-have elements like retail, premium lounges, large parking structures, etc enter the conversation in the end. Operating cost and resilience are where low‑cost terminals can truly differentiate themselves. In India’s hot climates, there is no reason every square metre of a building must be mechanically cooled. A more intelligent approach uses high roofs, deep overhangs, shaded verandahs and cross‑ventilation to keep public halls comfortable for most of the year, could be looked at. This not only reduces energy spend but also cuts the complexity and maintenance burden of HVAC systems. Operational flexibility is another underrated design parameter. Smaller airports tend to see peaky, unpredictable traffic, often driven by a handful of scheduled flights, charters and seasonal tourism. Designing processing areas, seating and ancillary spaces to be reconfigurable, may be by using movable partitions, multi‑use halls and flexible counters allows operators to cope with these peaks without overbuilding. With technology emergence and adoption, like DigiYatra, self‑service check‑in and bag drops, body scanners in security, such flexibility will also make it easier to retrofit without major civil works. Another important aspect of making low-cost terminals appealing is their identity. Using local materials—brick, stone, timber, traditional screens—in simple forms gives a sense of identity at modest cost. Programming retail and F&B with regional brands rather than generic chains can support local economies while creating non‑aeronautical revenue streams. Most importantly, the airport must be thought of as part of a wider urban and economic system. Its master plan should align with city land‑use, industrial corridors and logistics nodes, with an emphasis on affordable surface connectivity—buses, shared mobility, eventual rail—rather than just private cars. For many smaller cities, getting this interface right will have more impact on usage and public perception than any architectural flourish. Taken together, these elements can be distilled into a simple strategic playbook for India’s next wave of airports. Right‑size and phase capacity by designing for what you realistically need in the next five to seven years. Default to simple, linear layouts and only move up the complexity ladder when forced. Treat non‑negotiable level of service, safety and regulatory needs as sacred, but challenge every other line item for its impact on lifecycle cost and service. Design for low operations and maintenance (O&M) through climate‑sensitive architecture and robust systems, and keep operational flexibility at the heart of spatial planning. Finally, give each terminal a grounded sense of place and connect it tightly to the city it serves. If Indian planners, state governments and private operators can internalise this mindset, the country’s regional aviation push has a chance to be both expansive and financially sustainable. It can bring the benefits of air connectivity to dozens of emerging cities without saddling future taxpayers and operators with infrastructure they cannot afford to run. Share Share Share

Market Intelligence and Analytics

Probabilistic Demand Forecasting for Airport Master Planning: Hyderabad Airport Case Study

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Airport Intelligence Series Probabilistic Demand Forecasting for Airport Master Planning: Hyderabad Case Study April 2026 7 min read Master plans, capital programmes, and terminal sizing decisions worth hundreds of millions of dollars are routinely built on single-line demand projections. The question is not whether the forecast will be inaccurate — it will be — but how much, and in which direction, and what that means for infrastructure that takes a decade to plan, fund, and build. Probabilistic forecasting offers a fundamentally different approach: instead of a single number, it delivers a distribution of plausible outcomes, each with an associated likelihood. This opinion piece applies that approach to paint a range of scenarios for both domestic and international passenger traffic at Hyderabad International Airport (HYD), one of the fastest-growing southern aviation hubs in India. Hyderabad International Airport Case Study Domestic traffic has quadrupled in a decade; international connectivity has expanded to 26 scheduled destinations with total passenger traffic volumes exceeding 29 million in FY 2025. There is a Master Plan update underway that charts the next phase of growth at Hyderabad airport and will make key decisions on the delivery timeline of big-ticket items such as a North Code F Runway, new Passenger Terminal and associated landside facilities. A total capital expenditure outlay of over INR 14,000 crore ($1.5 Billion) is anticipated in the next 5-7 years. IndiGo is the dominant carrier with a market share of over 71% on the domestic side. This carries both advantages and risks. Their wide-ranging domestic exposure adds risk for the growth of local traffic – a key component of the overall aviation traffic growth anticipated at the airport. A Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of above 5000 represents a highly concentrated market, tying the success of the airport closely to the success of Indigo’s operation at HYD. The disruptions in December 2025 due to the failure to adapt to the new FTDL norms are an example of the demand risk (albeit temporary in this case) for established monopolies. Domestic passenger traffic clocked 12.8% lower in December 2025 at HYD. On the international front, the ongoing West Asia conflict continues to impact air travel to the Gulf corridor, a segment that accounts for approximately 65% of HYD’s international seat supply. The Historical Record: From 7 MAP to 29 MAP in a Decade HYD’s growth story is overwhelmingly a domestic aviation story. In FY2010, the airport handled 4.8 million domestic passengers. By FY2025, traffic volumes had scaled 24.4 million, a CAGR of approximately 10.7% over 15 years. The airport grew on steroids pre-COVID period: between FY2015 and FY2019, domestic traffic grew at a CAGR of roughly 23%, propelled by IndiGo’s aggressive capacity deployment. The transfer traffic at HYD also increased significantly with IndiGo’s Domestic to Domestic hubbing strategy. International traffic has followed a parallel but slower trajectory. From 1.9 million in FY2011, international passengers grew to 4.0 million by FY2019 (CAGR of approximately 9.2%), Recovery after COVID has been robust: Traffic volumes in FY2024 scaled 4.2 million international passengers (+23.2% YoY), and FY2025 reached a new peak of 4.7 million. The international share of total traffic remained stable at 16-18% in recent times. Source: AAI / Avinia Labs Methodology: SARIMAX and Monte Carlo Simulation An analytical framework based on a Seasonal ARIMA model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX), overlaid with 1,000-iteration Monte Carlo simulation was used to generate probabilistic confidence bands. The model was run independently for domestic and international traffic. The COVID-19 period (March 2020–December 2022) was treated as a temporary exogenous shock using a binary variable. Model parameters were selected using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Monte Carlo residuals were sampled from the post-COVID normalisation period (January 2023 onwards), ensuring that the simulated uncertainty bands reflect current operating conditions rather than pandemic-era noise. Domestic: The IndiGo Adjustment Since the December 2025 disruption represented a temporary exogenous shock, the data point was not utilized for the SARIMAX model to avoid any near-term downward recency bias. The temporary phenomena is evidenced in the flatlining of January 2026 volumes as compared to January 2025. International: The Middle East Disruption Scenario For international traffic, distinct macro-scenarios with geopolitical disruption were analyzed. The disruption scenario quantifies the impact of the West Asia conflict on HYD’s Gulf-dependent international traffic. The modeling assumed that the disruption would continue till May 2026 and drop in volumes to the Gulf region would be confined to the ongoing month of March through May (representing 65% of total international supply from HYD). Some recovery was assumed to happen in April. Projections to FY2030: Three Scenarios Across Two Segments From the 1,000 Monte Carlo simulated demand paths, three scenarios drawn from the Monte Carlo distribution are most informative: P25 (conservative, exceeded 75% of the time), P50 (base case, the forecast mean), and P85 (optimistic, exceeded only 15% of the time). The P25-P85 range defines the corridor within which traffic is most likely to fall under the modelled conditions. Domestic Traffic Projections Under the P50 base case, domestic traffic grows from 24.4 million in FY2025 to approximately 32.2 million by FY2030 representing aCAGR of roughly 5.7%. The P25 conservative path (resulting in 27.1 million passengers in FY2030) reflects a world where IndiGo’s fleet recovery is delayed, economic headwinds dampen travel demand, and competing airports absorb a larger share of southern India’s growth. The P85 optimistic scenario reaches approximately 40.0 million (CAGR of 10.4%), driven by full IndiGo fleet restoration, aggressive deployment by competitors, and GDP growth above 7%. Source: Avinia Labs SARIMAX-Monte Carlo model The steep upside CAGR (10.4%) vs muted downside (2.1%) suggests:The market is supply-constrained in the base case.When supply is released → demand responds stronglyThe spread between P25 and P85 widens dramatically over the horizon: from 5.6 million in FY2027 to 12.9 million by FY2030. A single-line forecast would entirely obscure this aspect. International Traffic: Geopolitical Disruption The geopolitical disruption scenario tells a different near-term story. By removing Gulf seat supply for March-May 2026, FY2027 international traffic volumes at the P50 level are lower by 380,000 passengers

Globetrotter

From Wait Times to Real-Time: MWAA’s AI Edge

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Airport Intelligence Series Al-Ula International Airport Enters the Digital ATC Era February 2026   Al-Ula International Airport in Saudi Arabia has become the first airport in the Middle East to operate fully remotely using advanced digital tower technology, marking a significant step in aviation operations and infrastructure innovation. The remote air traffic control system was developed collaboratively by Saudi Air Navigation Services (SANS) and global technology provider Indra, and went into service in February 2026. Controllers now manage aircraft movements at Al-Ula from a distant operations centre, using high-definition cameras, sensors and real-time data feeds to maintain situational awareness and oversee arrivals and departures. The implementation of a digital tower reduces reliance on traditional physical control towers and offers operational efficiency gains, while supporting broader strategic objectives, including enhanced safety, improved resource utilisation and the adoption of modern air navigation technologies. This development aligns with regional aviation goals to modernise air traffic infrastructure as demand grows and new mobility solutions emerge. Share Share Share

Market Intelligence and Analytics

The Single Line Forecast Will Be Wrong. Here’s How to Plan for It – Washington Dulles Airport Case Study

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Airport Intelligence Series The Single Line Forecast Will Be Wrong. Here’s How to Plan for It – Washington Dulles Airport Case Study March 2026 7 min read Airport traffic forecasting has traditionally been an exercise in false precision. Master plans, capital programmes, and terminal sizing decisions worth hundreds of millions of dollars are routinely built on single-line demand projections that imply a certainty no forecaster can honestly claim. The question is not whether the forecast will be wrong — it will be — but how wrong, in which direction, and what that means for infrastructure that takes a decade to plan, fund, and build. Probabilistic forecasting offers a fundamentally different approach: instead of a single number, it delivers a distribution of plausible outcomes, each with an associated likelihood. This opinion piece applies that approach to the international traffic at Washington Dulles International Airport (IAD), one of the fastest-growing international gateways in the United States. Washington Dulles Case Study IAD’s new use and lease agreement includes a $9.0B capital program for a 15-year period. That’s not chump change for an anticipated 13 million annual passenger growth from now. What if the growth doesn’t materialize? IAD has been in the news lately – US Department of Transportation (DOT) had issued a Request for Information (RFI) seeking design, financing and construction concepts ideas for rebuilding IAD. The responses that came in ranged from some practical ideas to pure marketing sells. During the RFI stage, an earlier opinion piece by Avinia Labs on the Airport P3 Investment Decision Framework in the context of IAD was published, which presented a single line demand total passenger forecast and highlighted the high market share concentration. United Airlines dominance at IAD carries both advantages and risks. Their wide-ranging international exposure adds risk for the growth of international traffic – a key component of the overall aviation traffic growth anticipated at the airport. A Herfindahl-Hirschman Index of 3,900 represents a highly concentrated market, tying the success of the airport closely to the success of UA’s operation at IAD. The Historical Record: A Story of Disruption and Recovery IAD’s international passenger trajectory over the past decade illustrates precisely why rigid point forecasts fail and why the airport’s current position demands closer attention than a simple recovery story would suggest. Before COVID-19, international traffic at IAD was relatively stable, hovering between 8.0–8.5 million passengers from 2016 to 2019 with modest annual growth below 1.5%. Growth was incremental, driven primarily by gradual expansion in long-haul connectivity to Europe and the Middle East rather than structural network transformation. The pandemic caused a severe contraction in 2020, with international passengers falling by over 76% to roughly 2 million. Recovery began in 2021 and accelerated sharply in 2022 as travel restrictions lifted. By 2023, IAD had surpassed its pre-pandemic peak, reaching 9.35 million passengers. Growth continued in 2024 (10.38 million) and 2025 (10.53 million), marking three consecutive record years. Monthly peaks now exceed 1.1 million passengers — 22% higher than the 2019 high. Unlike the pre-COVID plateau, the recent expansion reflects structural network broadening rather than incremental frequency additions. Total annual international flights rose 12% between 2023 and 2025. Growth has been driven by new airline entrants and new destinations across Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Asia, including significant capacity additions and aircraft upgauging (e.g., A380 deployment). While post-2020 compound growth (~39%) is inflated by the recovery base effect, even measured from 2019 levels, international traffic is growing at approximately 3.8% annually — outperforming the long-term U.S. international average of 2–3%. United Airlines, as the dominant home carrier operating 68% of flights at IAD, underpins the entire network, up 15% over two years. Its regional partners Republic Airline and GoJet nearly tripled their international feed operations from 494 to over 2,200 flights, reflecting United’s strategic push to broaden international connectivity through its IAD hub. The airport is not simply recovering; it is consolidating its position as a connecting hub for international traffic originating from secondary US markets – a structural shift with meaningful implications for how the forecast range should be interpreted. Monthly Seasonality: Understanding the Peaks International passenger traffic at IAD follows a pronounced seasonal pattern that is critical for capacity planning, staffing, and terminal design. The peak travel season runs from June through August, driven by summer leisure demand, diaspora travel, and student movements. These peak months carry roughly 70-80% more traffic than the winter trough months of January and February, when volumes typically drop to between 600,000 and 700,000 passengers. The peak-to-trough ratio at IAD approximately 1.7:1 to 1.8:1 for international traffic is moderately high by US gateway standards, though less extreme than leisure-dominated airports in Florida or the Caribbean. Comparing peak months across years reveals a structural upward shift: June 2024 traffic exceeded June 2023 by approximately 10%, and June 2023 itself was roughly 15% above June 2019. This is not merely recovery it is structural growth layered on top of the seasonal pattern. The shoulder months of April-May and September–October have also strengthened, partly driven by airline schedule changes and the expansion of year-round long-haul services. This broadening of the demand profile is a positive development for asset utilisation, though the summer peak remains the dominant design constraint. Methodology: SARIMAX and Monte Carlo Simulation For this analysis, Avinia employed a Seasonal ARIMA model with external inputs (SARIMAX) a statistical framework purpose-built for time-series data exhibiting both trend and cyclical behaviour. The SARIMAX model captures three key drivers of airport traffic: long-term structural growth in demand, predictable monthly seasonality operating on a 12-month cycle, and short-term fluctuations around the trend. An explicit trend component was included to reflect the sustained post-recovery growth trajectory observed at Dulles. Critically, the COVID-19 period from March 2020 to December 2022 was treated as a temporary exogenous shock rather than a permanent structural change. A binary external variable was introduced to isolate the pandemic’s effect on passenger volumes, allowing the model to learn from the underlying demand dynamics without being distorted by the crisis period. This methodological

Globetrotter

Touchless Security Checks Expanding Across U.S. Airports

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Airport Intelligence Series March 2026 Touchless Security Checks Expanding Across U.S. Airports   The U.S. Transportation Security Administration (TSA) is expanding its TSA PreCheck Touchless ID facial-recognition program to 65 airports by late spring 2026, prioritizing cities hosting matches in the 2026 FIFA World Cup to prepare for increased international travel. The system, available to enrolled PreCheck travellers who opt in, lets passengers upload a passport photo via an airline app or website and verify their identity at security using a camera, eliminating the need to present a physical ID. TSA reports the biometric verification takes about five seconds and reduces document handling. Participation remains voluntary; travellers may still choose a traditional ID check, although separate lanes could extend wait times during peak periods. Privacy concerns have been raised by some lawmakers and advocates, prompting debate over data retention and usage. TSA maintains that biometric data are encrypted and deleted within 24 hours. Adequate travel authorization remains required prior to U.S. arrival. Share Share Share

Globetrotter

90 Days to Launch: U.S. eVTOL Race Accelerates

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Airport Intelligence Series March 2026 90 Days to Launch: U.S. eVTOL Race Accelerates   The FAA is selecting five demonstration projects under its eVTOL Integration Pilot Programme (eIPP), established under Executive Order 14307 and structured as public-private partnerships between state and local governments and private sector operators. Notably, no federal funding accompanies selection – participants fund their own operations – and the programme runs for three years from first operational flight. Operations are authorised to begin within 90 days of selection, spanning use cases from passenger air taxis to cargo and emergency medical transport. Archer Aviation’s Midnight – a four-passenger aircraft designed for 20 to 50-mile hops at up to 150 mph – has cleared final airworthiness criteria and secured the exclusive air taxi role for both the FIFA World Cup and Super Bowl LXI in Los Angeles. The company has filed eIPP applications across five states, including California, Texas, and Florida. Joby Aviation, meanwhile, has more than doubled its Ohio manufacturing capacity, strengthening its standing as one of the sector’s most advanced manufacturers. Yet full commercial type certification for either operator is not expected before mid-2027. The gap between demonstration and commercial operation is precisely where critical infrastructure decisions must be made. Airport authorities, urban planners, and vertiport developers who delay commitment risk ceding route positioning to earlier movers. The eIPP is not the finish line – it is the opening of a narrow window in which cities will establish infrastructure leadership or watch from the sidelines. Share Share

Cargo and Logistics

The Smart Cargo Terminal: A Practical framework for Technology Integration – U.S Version

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Airport Intelligence Series The Smart Cargo Terminal: A Practical Framework for Technology Integration March 2026 5 min read The Global Air Cargo sector currently navigates an environment where the challenges facing the industry are different from those of the past. On one hand, there are factors such as geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and trade lane disruptions; while on the other, there are challenges arising from capacity constraints, expensive labour and sustainability commitments. For decades, the answer to cargo growth was simple: build more warehouses. When volumes rose, we expanded footprint and adjusted layout. With the rapid growth of traffic and the associated aeronautical infrastructure needs of airports, physical space constraints are plaguing all the major airports. Cargo facilities that require prime real estate at an airport, with airside access are impacted by this constraint too.  Technology provides a solution, enabling optimization of the cargo capacity. But it is easier said than done. The question facing cargo operators and handlers today is not whether to transform or not. It is about how to do it  without falling into the trap of fragmented, reactive technology adoption that creates new inefficiencies rather than eliminating old ones. In this article, we propose a framework to facilitate decision-making on technology integration for cargo terminals to function as an intelligent and ecosystem-connected facilities. The Core Strategic Shift The path to greater throughput is no longer paved with more square footage. It is built on smarter use of what already exists. Technology integration, when executed along with architectural design, allows stakeholders to extract significantly more output from current or future planned facilities. The evidence from airports that have made this transition demonstrates measurable gains in throughput, dwell time reduction, labour productivity, and service reliability. When we think about cargo facilities planning, technology solutions are often a layer on top, unaccounted for in the design stage resulting in sub-optimal outcomes. An integrated solution would mean drafting out a plan for technology adoption at different phases and working backwards to the design of the physical space, incorporating the requirements of future technology. In other words, the vision for a smart cargo terminal must dictate the design of the terminal, and it must be planned thoroughly. A Three-Layer Framework for Technology Integration in Air Cargo Facilities Technology integration is most effective when approached as a structured maturity pathway rather than a collection of isolated pilots. Hence, a three-layered approach, where each successive capability builds on the foundation established by the one before it. Each layer has standalone value and its potential is enhanced with combination of other layers. Decision makers can hence use the framework to craft a practical path of realizing the vision of a smart cargo terminal. Layer 1: Physical Automation Automation is the first and most tangible step. It addresses the highest-visibility pain points — manual handling inefficiencies, peak-period bottlenecks, ULD damage, and the safety risks inherent in labor intensive environments. Technologies in this layer include Autonomous Mobile Vehicles (AMVs), robotic pallet movers, and Automated Storage and Retrieval Systems (AS/RS) Shanghai Pudong International Airport deployed heavy-load AGVs in their cargo terminal to manage rising e-commerce volume and labour dependency. They deployed six 10-tonne-capacity AGVs integrated with China’s first lift-and-run system. Operating 24/7 with precision control, these systems reduced manual transfers and improved throughput stability. At FedEx South Pacific Regional Hub in Singapore, AI-enabled robotic sorting arms process up to 1,000 parcels per hour across 100 destinations with >98.5% accuracy, while allowing manpower redeployment to higher-value functions. Physical automation makes the strongest case in environments characterised by high volume, complex handling requirements, or significant space constraints. It delivers measurable gains when deployed correctly. Layer 2: Intelligence Integration While Layer 1 would standardize workflows and and increase throughputs, it does not adapt well to real time variability. Unexpected disruptions or fluctuating demand may restrict its efficiency.  When artificial intelligence is deployed as the intelligence layer above physical automation, it provides precisely this capability: adaptive decision-making and real-time optimisation across the entire terminal operation. Where automation delivers the execution backbone, AI delivers the decision-making intelligence. There are several cargo management system (CMS) products that provide an integrated platform covering sales, warehouse management, ULD management, mail handling, revenue management etc. Rather than allowing AGVs, storage systems, and handling equipment to operate as independent automated silos, the CMS integrates them into a unified terminal management platform. Real-time analytics, predictive task allocation, and system-wide visibility through mobile interfaces enable continuous performance monitoring and dynamic resource deployment. These platforms have been deployed in live cargo environments including Shanghai Pudong, Finnair Cargo Terminal, Istanbul’s Mega Hub amongst others. Layer 3: Ecosystem Integration While the cargo terminal may be highly automated and intelligently managed, if the broader ecosystem — landside, airside, and city processes operates without real-time visibility into asset location, and systemic inefficiencies persist. Ecosystem integration extends digital visibility to every asset and actor in the cargo supply chain. Smart labels, IoT-enabled tracking, and connected community platforms transform fragmented multi-stakeholder processes into coordinated operations. This is the larger vision. By equipping non-powered assets like ULD dollies, loose pallets, and ground support equipment, with battery-operated trackers, real-time visibility across both airside and cargo zones can be achieved. Hoopo, an Israel based company has deployed its tracking technology at several global airports and reported favourable outcomes. These include a 70% reduction in manual search time for assets and, a 50% faster GSE response times, with direct downstream benefits for aircraft turnaround performance. At Kempegowda International Airport, Bengaluru, the response was structural. Rather than addressing individual pain points in isolation, the airport built a single digital platform, the Airport Cargo Community System, that connected airlines, customs, freight forwarders, ground handlers, and trucking partners into a shared operational view. Landside congestion, often the most stubborn bottleneck at high-growth gateways, was tackled directly through an automated truck management facility. The results were measurable: average truck turnaround dropped from four hours to one, and 78% of vehicles now enter the terminal within 20 minutes. Export dwell time came down

Globetrotter

Hearing Every Call: Frankfurt Trials Auracast at the Gate – U.S Version

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Airport Intelligence Series Hearing Every Call: Frankfurt Trials Auracast at the Gate March 2026   Frankfurt Airport has launched a world-first trial of Auracast broadcast audio – a new Bluetooth technology that sends gate announcements directly to passengers’ own devices (hearing aids, earbuds, headphones or smartphones). The pilot is live at Gates A16 and A17 in Terminal 1, where travellers can connect their compatible devices and receive personalised audio streams of boarding calls, gate changes, delays and other flight information. Why it matters for passengers: Busy airport terminals are often noisy, which can make traditional loudspeaker announcements difficult to hear, particularly for deaf and hard-of-hearing passengers. By streaming announcements straight to personal devices, Auracast provides clearer, more inclusive access to important travel information, reducing stress and enhancing confidence during the airport experience. This is a substantial step toward a more accessible travel environment for all passengers, especially the estimated 1.5 billion people globally living with some degree of hearing loss. How it works: Auracast turns public audio into a Bluetooth broadcast that multiple compatible devices can tune into without traditional pairing. Users can connect via compatible smartphones (e.g., Pixel, Samsung), earbuds, headphones or hearing aids to receive direct gate audio. The trial will run for about two months while feedback is collected to evaluate comfort, clarity and overall passenger experience. Industry impact: If successful, this technology could expand to other airports worldwide, enabling more inclusive and quieter terminal environments while significantly improving real-time communication for passengers with hearing impairments. Share Share Share

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