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Airport Planning & Infrastructure

How Infrastructure Planning is Evolving in the Age of Resilience

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Airport Intelligence Series How Infrastructure Planning is Evolving in the Age of Resilience September 2025 4 min read   With climate, technology, and mobility transforming how infrastructure is built and used, long-term master plans are no longer enough. We explore: How to integrate agility into 30-year infrastructure visions Resilient planning frameworks for airports and logistics hubs Lessons from leading airports From Predict-and-Provide to Adapt-and-Evolve Old Paradigm:Infrastructure Master Plans were built on stable growth assumptions and linear demand forecasts, aiming to “predict” future capacity and “provide” infrastructure accordingly. New Paradigm:In an era marked by volatility (pandemics, climate change, geopolitical shifts), planners are now focusing on adaptive frameworks—planning infrastructure that can scale up, shift purpose, or delay activation based on actual needs. Resilience used to be a synonym for flood protection or earthquake readiness. Today, it’s multidimensional: Climate resilience, to withstand extreme weather events Operational resilience, to anticipate and recover from disruptions, whether physical or cyber. Financial resilience, built on agile capital expenditure strategies and diversified revenue streams. Social resilience, ensuring equity, inclusivity, and adaptability for local communities. Traditional master plans were static documents. Now, infrastructure planning is becoming a real-time, data-enhanced process using: Digital twins to simulate terminal operations Scenario modelling to test resilience to disruptions AI/ML-based forecasting for dynamic demand evolution (more on this in the second featured insight in this newsletter) Smart monitoring for real-time asset health and user feedback What This Means for Airport Leaders Masterplans should be living documents—flexible, digital, and regularly reviewed. Design thinking must prioritize resilience over rigidity—allowing future reconfiguration. Investment strategies should be phased, blended, and ESG-aligned to reduce future exposure. Stakeholder engagement should focus on trust and transparency to enable durable outcome Engage in strategic partnerships and public-private collaborations to drive innovation and economic growth beyond traditional passenger services. Avinia spoke to senior industry leaders in India to gauge their thought process and how they are planning to adapt to the changing dynamic. This insight from Suman, who leads the Capacity and Master Planning function, and the Project Coordination Group at Bangalore International Airport Limited (BIAL), highlighting Bengaluru Airport’s evolution from a 40 MPPA plan to 100+ MPPA within the same footprint is evidence of why masterplans must be flexible, scalable, and future-ready.  “While Masterplans are built on linear demand forecasts, adaptive infrastructure frameworks is not just timely, but its essential. At Bengaluru International Airport we are embedding flexibility into every planning and design decision—whether in masterplans, terminal layouts or airside development—so that capacity can scale up, pivot, or pause as conditions demand. Just as an example, our first masterplan in 2008 was developed to handle a saturation capacity of 40 MPPA for the year 2028. Recently we updated our masterplan to handle an upward of 100 MPPA capacity in the same footprint, considering we are already at 43 MPPA today. Looking ahead, planners must also anticipate technology disruptions—biometrics, eVTOLs, and other breakthroughs—so today’s infrastructure can adapt to tomorrow’s innovations.” – Suman Ramasundaram, Associate Vice President, BIAL. Kiran Jain from Noida Airport emphasizes on the need for sustainable development while integrating net zero ambitions and modular design. “Infrastructure planning is evolving to meet the demands of a rapidly changing world. Traditional master plans, built on fixed growth expectations, are giving way to flexible, adaptive frameworks that respond to real-time conditions. Today’s infrastructure must be designed to scale, pivot, or delay implementation based on shifting needs and uncertainties such as pandemics, climate change, and geopolitical factors. A prime example is Noida International Airport, which features phased development allowing capacity to expand from 12 million to 70 million passengers as demand grows. The integrated passenger terminal is designed for seamless phasing, enabling adjustments to both the scale and nature of demand as it evolves. Its focus on sustainability through net zero emissions, renewable energy, and modular design ensures it can adapt operationally and environmentally. This approach epitomizes the shift towards resilient, future-ready infrastructure—capable of delivering value while managing risk in an unpredictable world”. – Kiran Jain, Chief Operating Officer, Noida International Airport Sapan Gupta, head of master planning and design at GMR Hyderabad Airport, provides a holistic view of his priorities in shaping the vision for the new terminal at Hyderabad. “The focus is no longer only on efficiency, capacity, or visual appeal. Today the key question shaping master plans and investment decisions is whether infrastructure can withstand the unexpected. At Hyderabad Airport, the pandemic disrupted demand just like everywhere else, yet it was among the first to bounce back to pre-COVID levels and even record double-digit passenger growth. This kind of volatility forces airport planners to think differently: Can facilities be repurposed quickly? How can technology enable more adaptable spaces? I am a strong proponent of data-driven design approach, especially for large public infrastructure like airports. At Hyderabad’s Airport Operations Control Centre (APOC), we have an AI-powered digital twin platform that integrates airside, landside, and terminal operations that provides real time data which not only improves day-to-day operations but also generates valuable insights that inform long-term infrastructure design”. – Sapan Gupta, Head- Master Planning and Design, GHIAL. Share Share Share

Market Intelligence and Analytics

India Passenger Traffic Market Deep Dive

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Airport Intelligence Series India Passenger Traffic Market Deep Dive July 2025 2 min read Passenger traffic levels in India have surpassed its pre-COVID benchmark, with total passenger traffic clocking 412 million in 2025 [1], a 20 percent increase compared to 2019. India represents the third busiest domestic O-D market. Where do we go from here? 2.5x growth to 1+ billion passenger volumes by 2040. There are several scenarios that could play out on the back of anticipated economic growth, air travel penetration, emerging geopolitical and trade barriers. Each of these scenarios generate a very different set of numbers in a 15-year time frame from today. The moderate growth scenario (also referred to as the diversification scenario) or where Indian carriers will continue to tap new markets and propensity to fly will substantially increase in the next 10 years.   In the diversification scenario, Avinia Labs projects a robust growth in passenger demand at an India wide level on the back of record fleet orders and expansion of airport infrastructure. The passenger volumes will be a tad over 1 billion passengers in 2040, reflecting a CAGR of 6.6 percent from 2025 to 2040. Near-term growth is projected to be robust, with a CAGR exceeding 8 percent through 2030, pushing India wide annual passenger volumes to 600 million. The diversification scenario assumes structural transformation in the aviation landscape, with significant airport infrastructure investments in non-metro regions and increasing passenger willingness to fly. The supply side tells a slightly different story based on confirmed aircraft orders. The commercial fleet has grown at a 7.6 percent CAGR over the past decade, reaching over 860 aircraft as of December 2024[2]. As of January 2025, Indian airlines had collectively placed gross orders for 1,800 aircraft [3]. The net additions (excluding wet leases) by 2030 are expected to be around 600+ aircraft assuming a standard rate of retirements. This addition could increase the supply by about 1.2 million additional domestic air traffic movements (ATMs). As can be seen in the chart above, the supply trajectory tracks above the demand trajectory for the moderate growth scenario by about 100 million passengers annually. This surplus supply is a theoretical construct. The surplus provides the industry with operational flexibility, the ability to open new routes, and room to absorb future demand shocks. Over time, supply is expected to adjust in line with demand, driven by India’s highly elastic demand–supply pricing dynamic. However, if demand outpaces expectations and leads to higher load factors, the resulting shortfall may be addressed through interim solutions, similar to the contingency measures implemented last year in response to engine-related groundings. Analysing demand-side forecasts alongside supply-side investments at the national level provides stakeholders with a strategic lens to guide infrastructure development, fleet planning, and capital allocation over the next 15 years. The logical next step would be to drill down to the regional level to identify specific demand–supply gaps that state or regional authorities could address. We plan to explore this in future editions of the newsletter. We would love to get your feedback on the numbers. [1] https://www.aai.aero/ [2]https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/aviation-in-india [3]https://www.boeing.com/commercial https://www.airbus.com/en/products-services/commercial-aircraft/orders-and-deliveries Share Share Share

Mobility & Future Aviation

Can LAT Aerospace Disrupt Indian Aviation?

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Airport Intelligence Series Can LAT Aerospace Disrupt Indian Aviation? July 2025 4 min read In a move that’s turning heads across both startup and aviation circles, Zomato co-founder Deepinder Goyal has co-launched LAT Aerospace. What’s novel here is not just the aircraft, but the ambition to redesign India’s regional air travel architecture from the ground up. No, they are not going after the traffic laden Indian metro cities, offering an air-taxi product and promising to solve the at grade congestion. LAT is targeting trips that are too thin for 180-seater jets, too painful for overnight trains, and too long for road—yet rich in demand. India currently sees 25+ billion such intercity trips per year, by some estimates, making it a deeply fragmented but high-potential segment. What we know so far: Vision: Democratize intercity flying and offer bus-like frequency at near-rail fares. Aircraft: 12–24 seater hybrid-electric STOL aircraft. Infrastructure: “Air-stops” the size of parking lots with minimal runway requirements. Target Segment: 200–800 km travel demand between Tier 2 and 3 cities The company is positioning itself as a provider of “buses in the sky”. Think no airport queues, no security lines, no terminals—just walk in and fly. Essentially an entirely new segment of air mobility. Technology is key:However, the idea is currently in the concept stage. Much will depend on how quickly and effectively the company can design, test, and certify the aircraft. Deepinder Goyal’s public call for talent signals that LAT is still assembling its core engineering team. The entire proposition hinges on a key technological enabler: a certified, efficient, low-cost hybrid-electric STOL aircraft. And this is where the timelines can stretch. Another challenge could be the regulatory compliances. Even if LAT positions itself as an air taxi or commuter service, it would still fall under the purview of the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA). Current norms require Non-Scheduled Operator Permits (NSOPs), full airworthiness certification, and compliance even for a 9 seater aircraft. Business Idea Analysis:We used the strategic framework of Porter’s Five Forces to assess the competitive landscape of the industry that LAT will operate in. The five forces are – industry rivalry, threat of new entrants, supplier power, threat of substitutes, and buyer power.    The Porter’s analysis reveals the challenging industry with high entry barriers but LAT is seeking out an underserved market. While a lot is dependent on overcoming supplier limitations, regulatory hurdles, and achieving cost-effective operations to compete with the existing and new competition. Timing might be right:India has, in the past, seen many well-intentioned ventures in regional aviation, and yet most of them have failed to scale or sustain operations. That said, there are three converging factors that make LAT’s timing interesting. Policy momentum is shifting. DGCA is collaborating with ICAO to draft a comprehensive Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) regulatory framework, including hybrid-electric aircraft and modular infrastructure. Propulsion technologies are becoming increasingly viable for STOLs, with multiple credible developments, including FAA granting a G‑1 certification basis to Ampaire’s AMP‑H570 propulsion system[1], thus formally recognizing the technical viability of hybrid electric retrofits on STOL-type aircraft. The passenger demand in Tier 2 and 3 cities increasing along with their purchasing power. DGCA has also published the guidelines for the design, construction and operation of vertiports, but there is significant work to be done on the specifics of the guidelines and the business viability of vertiports. Given the potential of the market and seasoned entrepreneurs backing the venture, incumbent airports and airlines must take note and may be reassess how they engage with Tier 2/3 traffic and potential avenues to partner or incubate their own STOL as a defensive play. Bottomline is that there seems to be sufficient tailwind for LAT Aerospace and if it works, it can ripple across the ecosystem, with new employment and business opportunities. [1]https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/futureflight/2025-05-13/ampaire-scores-faa-g-1-hybrid-electric-propulsion-system Share Share Share

Cargo and Logistics

Air Cargo Growth: Deep Dive into the India Market

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Airport Intelligence Series Air Cargo Growth: Deep Dive into the India Market August 2025 3 min read Air cargo plays a unique role in global trade. While ocean freight moves nearly 99% of world trade by volume, dominated by low-value bulk commodities like oil, ores, and grains, air freight carries less than 1%. Yet, it accounts for almost 35% of trade value, serving as the backbone for perishable, high-value, and time-sensitive goods. Air cargo growth has historically underperformed as compared to the more relatable passenger numbers in India. There is structural dependence on the limited “cheap” belly and the regulatory and policy bottlenecks have constrained the cargo volume growth.  But there is light at the end of the policy tunnel perhaps with BCAS recently eliminating screening requirements for transfer cargo and allowing tail to tail transfers. The infrastructure really needs to catch up – ball is in the court of the airport operators and ground handlers. Back to the history lesson – if we merely extrapolated 10 years of pre-covid air cargo growth performance, we would end up with 3.2 million tons for domestic and 5.3 million tons for international in 2040. That signifies a CAGR of about 5.5-5.8% for domestic and international. In the overall context, this represents an uptick in the growth witnessed from 2010 to 2020 – 6.3% CAGR for domestic and 4% CAGR for international – but not by much. The 2026 export volumes are discounted due to the second round of tariffs on high value goods such as gold and jewellery, and some textiles. We don’t buy the hypothesis that the growth is going to be muted for long due to the tariffs or continue along the trend line. For various reasons, India’s air cargo sector now stands at an inflection point. The country is South Asia’s largest air cargo market. That’s not a surprise.  What’s behind the inflection point in the trend? The value of the iPhones and electronics consignment has exponentially grown with numbers only out of Chennai Port (~$10.6 billion in export). Data from Counterpoint Research shows that 71 per cent of iPhones sold in the US between April and June this year were made in India, up sharply from 31 per cent a year earlier. The rise of high value manufacturing will continue – the second round of tariffs are not going to have an impact on iPhone prices.  Ecommerce has grown around 25% year on year for the last 3 years. The gross merchandise value of e-commerce is expected to be scale-up 5x to 500 billion USD in the next 10 years.  Significant investments are being made in augmenting the cargo handling capacity in India – the new Bangalore domestic cargo terminal and upcoming Multi-Modal Cargo Hub in Noida airport are examples of state of the art cargo infrastructure. Avinia was fortunate to have led mandates for Cargo Master Planning and capacity assessment on the two nation building projects. And the supply on the belly side isn’t a problem in the near-term, with the supply side forecast outpacing the regression based demand numbers by a mile – 2.1 million tons of supply by 2030 for domestic and 3.8 million tons of supply by 2030 for international. There is a potential upside or high case with a more conducive tariff environment that could result in up to 20-25% higher volumes than the baseline. Encouraging greater widebody penetration, attracting dedicated freighter operators, and aligning belly-hold strategies with cargo demand corridors could create disproportionate growth. The infrastructure readiness will align with the demand growth ultimately. There is a compelling return on investment (ROI) case for private capital to enter the air cargo and logistics sector.  Note:  Domestic Forecast: A composite baseline forecast was developed using a combination of parameters, including India’s GDP and crude oil prices. International Forecast: A composite baseline forecast was developed using a combination of parameters, including India’s GDP, world GDP, and crude oil prices. Share Share Share

Environment and Sustainability

Sustainable Aviation Fuel: How prepared are we to meet industry targets?

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Airport Intelligence Series Sustainable Aviation Fuel: How prepared are we to meet industry targets? Co-authored by Debayan Sen and Ira Gupta August 2025 4 min read Introduction Airlines around the globe are committing to aggressive decarbonisation goals and to achieve net zero emissions by 2050. IATA estimates that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is expected to be a key driver and could contribute ~65% of the reduction in emissions needed by the aviation sector to meet net zero ambitions. In Europe, policy mandates are accelerating SAF adoption. The European Union’s ReFuelEU Aviation initiative has come into force on 1st January 2025 and requires a minimum SAF blend of 2%. This will rise to 6% by 2030, 20% by 2035, and 70% by 2050. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom has set its own SAF mandate which also commenced with a 2% blend in early 2025. This will gradually ramp up with at least 10% SAF by 2030 and a roadmap towards net zero aviation by 2050. In 2024, global SAF production doubled in comparison to 2023 reaching 1.3 billion litres. However, this only accounted for 0.3% of the total global jet fuel production. The projected share of SAF for 2025 is 0.7% [1]. There is a long way to go before meeting industry targets and will need a significant ramp in production to ~7 billion litres annually.   There are 11 certified pathways to make feedstock for SAF and nearly half of the total market share for SAF is dominated by five large firms – Neste (Finland), Total Energies (France), World Energy LLC (UK), Eni (Italy) and OMV (Austria) [2]. India’s foray into SAF has been fairly recent compared to its global counterparts. A number of test flights were undertaken by airlines in 2018 and 2022. India is aiming for a 1 per cent SAF blend in ATF by 2027. The target will increase to 2 per cent in 2028 and reach 5 per cent by 2030 [3]. Challenges to adoption  Regulatory framework: National mandates and regulations should be aligned with IATA timelines. Periodic review of progress is required at intermediate milestones.    Increase in production infrastructure:  To meet 2050 targets, IATA estimates that 3000- 6500 renewable fuel plants will be needed. In the short-term, existing refineries can be used to co-process up to 5% of approved renewable feedstocks alongside the crude oil streams.   Pricing:  SAF prices can be 2 to 10 times the conventional jet fuel depending on production volumes and the quantum of public subsidies [4]. This remains a key barrier. In the UK, a price cap of £1.50 (~US$2) for a single air fare has been introduced to cover the cost of SAF blending. However, in price-sensitive markets like India such a move could negatively impact passenger demand as well as airline profitability since aviation fuel can account for nearly 40% of operational costs.    Supply reliability: Maintaining a consistent and affordable supply of SAF is necessary for wide-scale adoption. Airports may not need significant infrastructure upgrades but rather the focus must be on reliable supply chains, controlling logistics costs and quality checks.   Skilled Manpower: SAF production incorporates highly technical processes that require specialized expertise in biofuel technology, chemical engineering and large-scale industrial processes. Fast-growing aviation markets such as India will require further investment in training and upskilling manpower. Way forward We believe the long-term outlook for SAF production is positive. At a macro-level, meeting short-term milestones may be challenging without new production infrastructure.  Interim solutions could include use of existing refineries to co-process approved renewable feedstock. In India, the newly signed MoU between IndianOil and Air India to supply ISCC-CORSIA-certified SAF—produced from used cooking oil, with an expected annual output of 35,000 tonnes [5], is a step towards early commercial partnerships. This venture will use repurposed infrastructure to kick-start real supply chains, reinforce demand certainty, and build momentum toward blending targets.  A pragmatic incentive scheme can also stimulate the supply chain and provide price stability in the initial years. The global nature of the aviation industry means that both mature and emerging markets need to work side by side to meet industry targets. In recent times, SAF funds such as the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Financing Alliance (SAFFA) have emerged as a new category of sustainability-related investment vehicles in aviation. The airlines in India will need to get into the act and make bets to drive SAF investments. We understand that this is hard in an industry with thin margins. The risk can be shared by other players in the aviation ecosystem, such as companies that are looking beyond a target Internal Rate of Return to meet a broader range of sustainable, climate-conscious outcomes. [1]https://www.iata.org and https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2025-releases/2025-06-01-02/ [2]https://www.marketsandmarkets.com/ResearchInsight/sustainable-aviation-fuel-market.asp[3]https://www.constructionworld.in/transport-infrastructure/aviation-and-airport-infra/india-sets-saf-blending-targets-for-international-flights/[4]DOE (USA) https://www.energy.gov/eere/bioenergy/sustainable-aviation-fuel-grand-challenge[5]Indian Oil signs MoU with Air India for supply of sustainable aviation fuel – The Economic Times  Share Share Share

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