The story of Goa was that of a suppressed system for air travel – road taking the dominant share of domestic tourist activity – with seasonal activity driven by the charters from Europe. MOPA (GOX) opened in January 2023, and Dabolim (GOI) /MOPA (GOX) became the first dual-airport system in India.

The two airports are about 60 km apart. Technically, being part of a state and not a city/metropolitan region creates distinct catchment preferences due to the geographical spread. However, due to lack of serious competition from any other airport in the neighbouring states – the dual airports represent a competitive scenario with the incumbent, state-owned Airports Authority of India (AAI) operating Dabolim International Airport (GOI), and the 2^nd airport, Manohar International Airport (GOX), at MOPA, operating under a 40-year concession model with GMR Airports owning 100% of the equity.

90 mins catchment area

With distinct catchments, the two airports appeal to a very different type of customer. South Goa generally attracts local domiciled population and high-end tourists who prefer luxury resorts and personalised hospitality experiences, while North Goa draws more tourists focused on entertainment and nightlife. This difference in tourist profile and location makes both airports important for the state’s connectivity and tourism economy.

The success of a dual airport system (for both parties involved) hinges on the positioning of each airport and the scale that the airports can grow to. Unlike many other dual airport systems globally, the traffic allocation at Dabolim (GOI) /MOPA (GOX) is not a result of any government mandate but purely on market dynamics (and incentives). Through the lens of demand and supply, we look at how the overall pie has changed and the market share the two airports have been able to garner supported by the role some of the heavy-hitter airlines have played in the traffic distribution.

System Demand – Has the overall pie grown?

For the GOI/GOX system, one airport was never meant to be a replacement for the other. Since overall market size is not a zero-sum game, the expectation is that the new airport will create new customers and tap into latent demand. The overall pie should grow for the following reasons:

1. With GOX helping ease congestion and representing an option for airlines and passengers who don’t want to be limited by the operational restrictions at GOI and sync up travel to coincide with hotel check-in and check-out times
2. Improved access to North Goa (party place with serene beaches)
3. The two-airport system creates more supply and provides room for future growth.

Prior to the opening of MOPA (GOX), there was a sharp recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic with total passenger demand rebounding to 7.8 million in CY 2022 (representing a year-on-year growth of 50.3% from 2021). International recovery lagged while domestic travel rebounded aggressively on the back of revenge travel. Post MOPA (GOX) commissioning, the dual system traffic increased sharply in 2023 due to post pandemic revenge travel surge and the new supply.

The pace of growth slowed after 2023 as demand stabilised. The passenger demand for the dual airport system grew from 11.16 million to 11.62 million passengers from 2023 to 2025 – a relatively modest 2% CAGR largely concealing the redistribution beneath the headline number. This growth is lower than the overall growth seen in the Indian aviation market during the same period- India aviation market grew at 1 x multiplier of GDP (6.6% CAGR).

Overall, there hasn’t been much growth system wide – the cumulative supply of seats at GOX and GOI has only grown 3.6% from 2023 to 2025. 

What’s going on, Goa? Have you lost your MOJO?

There could be several reasons for the insipid demand growth in recent times including the following considerations:

• Overtourism – Crowding and low value tourism eroding the cultural identity of Goa
• Choice – Are Indians opting for other destinations including reasonably priced scenic destinations in South-East Asia? Airlines are not complaining as they map the Eastward surge.
• Cost – Has the state become too expensive due to the lack of affordable accommodation and transportation? Room tariffs in Goa have increased with the average daily rate (ADR) of about 10,900 INR in 2024 (Source: horwathhtl 2024 report)

Overtourism has been the bane of the state once known for its casual and easy-going lifestyle. The crowds thronging the beaches of Goa are not respectful of the beach surroundings.

Choice was expected and as the numbers of Indians traveling internationally continue to grow exponentially, the Indian carriers are lapping up slots at places such as Bali, Vietnam, Cambodia to name a few. Scheduled seats from India to Southeast Asia in 2025 are projected to be 29% above 2019 levels.

The third issue is a structural problem that is not just confined to Goa in the post pandemic world. Goa used to be known as the cheaper Maldives for our East European and Russian friends (who would come and stay for months sometimes). That’s not the case anymore.

Goa’s overall average daily rate (ADR) has roughly doubled over the last decade — from around ₹7,000 in FY2016 to over ₹10,000 by FY2023, consistently making it among the highest-ADR hotel market in India. In 2024, Goa slowed but did not decline — its 2.4% RevPAR (revenue per available room) growth remained positive but was very modest compared to the high growth rates of the previous two years.

Foreign Tourist Arrivals (FTAs) into Goa by air are currently about 71% lower than 2019 levels on the back of fewer charter flights. In 2019, there were around 800 international charter ATMs. By 2025, this number had fallen to around 190 ATMs, representing an 81% traffic decline compared to 2019.

For Goa to get its MOJO back, there needs to be a recalibration of the price point and service offerings that competes with the Balis of the world.

Consider removing this filler phrase — the list itself implies non-exhaustiveness.

Market Allocation

While the growth in the total market supply has been broadly flat from 2023 to 2025, the internal balance of power has shifted substantially year on year. MOPA’s (GOX) total market share trajectory ramped up from an opening monthly share of 15.4% in January 2023, stabilised around 40% through most of 2024, and broke through the 45% barrier consistently from May 2025 onwards, reaching 49.2% in December 2025, a level that signals near-parity in the Goa aviation market within just three years of opening.

Dabolim’s (GOI) decline coupled with MOPA’s (GOX) rise represents a structural shift in domestic and international traffic, and the broader strategic questions that aviation planners must now confront.

Dabolim (GOI): The Low-Cost & Domestic Hub

Dabolim (GOI) is predominantly operated by Indian low-cost carriers. IndiGo airline has the largest market share around (67%) and Air India Group (Air India & Air India Express) collectively has around 30% market share and international service to Dubai (DXB). However, its network has contracted significantly: the total supply seats at GOI fell from approximately 8.89 million in 2023 to 7.76 million in 2025, a reduction of 12.7%. The dominant airline IndiGo has used this opportunity to increase its market share at GOI (by 9%) and fill the gaps left by the other airlines that have moved service to GOX.

The airport’s shared civil-military status imposes a hard ceiling on expansion, the existing NOTAM restrictions at Dabolim (GOI) between 8.00 am and 12.00 pm restrict the scope of further commercial scale-up. This structural limitation has been one of the key drivers of capacity migration to MOPA (GOX). Airlines have been gradually right sizing their GOI operations as MOPA (GOX) absorbs growth.

MOPA (GOX): International Gateway & Full-Service Infrastructure

MOPA (GOX) retains a meaningful presence of Indian carriers including IndiGo’s core frequency-heavy routes, and Air India Group has similarly anchored their Goa operations at GOX. SpiceJet, Akasa Air, Fly91 and Star Air have completely shifted their network to GOX drawn by better slot availability, lower congestion, and better ground handling infrastructure.

In 2024, MOPA (GOX) handled 87,369 Foreign Tourist Arrivals, overtaking Dabolim’s (GOI) 74,749, a notable crossover just two years after commencing operations. The shift highlights the speed at which international carriers have gravitated toward the newer facility. MOPA (GOX) has successfully attracted European charter operators and seasonal scheduled services, particularly from the UK, Germany, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe. Most international scheduled routes have now migrated to MOPA (GOX), supported by its 3,750-metre, Code E–compliant runway capable of accommodating wide-body aircraft such as the A330 and Boeing 777.

Market Share Shift

On the international front, MOPA (GOX) has become the dominant international gateway for Goa in just two years. By mid-2025, MOPA (GOX) was handling over 65% of all international passengers in Goa, compared to just 11% in its opening year.

Dabolim’s (GOI) international network has been sharply rationalised. London Gatwick (terminated November 2025), Manchester, Muscat, Sharjah, Doha, and Moscow routes, which were active at Dabolim (GOI) at the start of 2023, migrated to MOPA (GOX) by end-2025. The CIS corridor Moscow, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, Tashkent, Almaty, Astana are now entirely MOPA (GOX) based.

The domestic seat supply trend tells a different picture. Between January 2023 and June 2024, GOI steadily lost market share to GOX. However, from July 2024 to January 2025, the trend reversed, primarily due to IndiGo and Air India reducing capacity at GOX while increasing supply at GOI. There appeared to be a temporary strategy in supply allocation to GOI/GOX and the market share for domestic traffic at GOX declined (month to month comparison) for a 12-month period (Feb 24-Feb 25). This was followed by a period of increase in market share at GOX due to a supply ramp up by both Indigo and Air India. The change in strategy has probably been driven by the change in economics of flying into the two airports (cost was brought on par) among other strategic and long-term growth considerations.

Avinia’s take

Dabolim’s (GOI) gradual decline in market share is not simply a market issue (or passenger choice) but a reflection of structural constraints like military airspace restrictions, limited expansion capacity, and scheduling limitations. The critical physical and operational constraints at Dabolim (GOI) – including terminal and apron capacity – is a hard ceiling. MOPA (GOX), with its unrestricted operations and Code E runway capability, can absorb future growth.

Airlines have responded rationally by reallocating capacity toward the airport offering operational flexibility and expansion headroom.

However, the dual-airport system has not yet produced a substantial increase in overall passenger volumes. Instead, it has redistributed traffic between the two airports (and kept the air fares in check) while improving infrastructure quality and international positioning.

The question is how big is the pie going to be? Can the system wide demand grow in line with overall India market growth or faster?

“Build and they will come” philosophy may not apply to the Goa market anymore. The cost dynamics for the typical traveler is a real consideration when deciding on their next adventure. Airlines will quickly reposition their fleet to serve new international markets. The infrastructure that is already built in Goa (and in the case of MOPA (GOX) there is significant upside) should be viewed as a strategic capacity platform.

Airlines have not raised prices in the last decade or so in inflation-adjusted terms. When it comes to traveling to Goa, airfares are ceasing to be the deciding factor for choosing the mode of travel. Everything else including hotels is more expensive.

The dual-airport system has effectively eased capacity constraints in Goa. The critical question now is whether underlying demand can scale up to match the planned infrastructure against a backdrop of higher travel costs. Can Goa recalibrate to stimulate demand? The jury is out on this one.